Barron’s is going wild over the Dow. The magazine says Get Ready for Dow 20,000.
Why not 80,000? The Dow is up 13% so far this year, the Dow is outpacing both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
Is this yet another magazine curse?
Economist – March 6, 1999 – Drowning in Oil
The economist predicted $5 oil.
Newsweek – April 10, 2009 – Cheap Oil Forever (Why Prices Will Keep Falling)
I can only find a small image.
The Economist which thought oil was going under $5 in 1999 was worried about high prices in 2008.
Economist – May 29, 2008 – RecOIL
That very same week BusinessWeek was “Bracing for Inflation“.
The article is only available to Bloomberg’s “Professional Service subscribers”. However, I captured snips on my blog, and it’s a real flashback hoot.
Growing evidence suggests American consumers, businesspeople, and political leaders should all be bracing for double-digit inflation, probably as early as 2009.
The relative price stability of the past 15 years is giving way to worsening inflation, despite the recent softening of oil prices. The Consumer Price Index for all items shows the inflation rate averaged 2.6% a year from 1992 through 2007 but has doubled since January, reaching an annual rate of 5.6% in July. By next year, the monthly figure could hit double digits, and the inflation rate for 2009 overall could triple 2007’s 2.85%.
I say this not only because I have looked at a broad range of statistics that point in this direction. I also run a private equity investment firm that owns companies in a number of industries—including restaurants, the manufacture of gardening tools, oil and gas exploration services, and distribution of entertainment products such as books and videos—that are already being forced to pass price increases on to the consumer.
The skyrocketing price of oil is obviously a central element in the accelerating price spiral. But a sea change in China’s role is beginning to have a huge impact as well. ….
That flashback is from my August 17, 2008 article Contrarian Indicators in which I blasted the inflation prediction of the day, based on rising oil prices.
In 2016, oil prices crashed, and Goldman Sachs was right on time discussing $20 oil.
Time Magazine Goes Gaga Over Real Estate
The June 13, 2005 issue of Time Magazine cover: Home $weet Home marked the real estate top.
In my It’s Time to Shift the Arrow on June 5, I posted some amusing comments from economists about a permanently high plateau and ended with this simple statement:
“In case you missed it, here was the Home $weet Home top call.”
The link is to the magazine cover. For some unknown reason, I did not display the cover but I made reference to it many times later.
April 10, 2016 Mish
On April 10, 2016, in US vs. Japan Land Prices Pictorial Update I made a pictorial presentation of where we were and where we were going. I am especially fond of this post so what follows is a repeat.
In Spring of 2005 I announced It’s a Totally New Paradigm
At that time the chart looked like this.
In June I announced It’s time to shift the arrow on the basis of Time Magazine going gaga over real estate.
In December I wrote that It’s Too Late.
When you see stuff like this, not only is it too late, it’s way too late.
I am pleased to announce that we have moved the arrow once again.
The current picture looks something like this.
When Was the Top?
Based on Case-Shiller, some claim housing peaked in Summer of 2006 not 2005. I dispute that allegation. Case-Shiller does not include condos, and I believe Case-Shiller did not take into consideration kickbacks, free pools, free cars, free trips, and cash back arrangements widely used to seal deals starting summer of 2005. Contract price was often not what it appeared.
Finally, things went from people standing in line hoping to get the right to buy a condo via lotteries, to lines of zero length almost overnight, in numerous places. That happened summer of 2005.
Sentiment does not get more extreme than Time magazine going “gaga” (yes, they used that word right on the cover).
Harry Dent Contrarian Book Covers
Economist Harry Dent made a fortune with a series of 100% ass-backwards books.
- The Roaring 2000s (1998)
- The Roaring 2000s Investor (1999)
- The Great Depression Ahead (2009)
- The Great Crash Ahead (2011)
- The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019 (2014)
At this point, I actually expect the Dow will break 20,000 complete with big parties and more magazine covers. Then what?
It remains to be seen if Dow 20,000 marks another top, but it’s a strong indicator of extreme one-sided sentiment that nothing can possibly go wrong.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock